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Instructions:
Irwin Operations Decision Tree for The Case Study in Operations Management
Several decision trees are described and developed in the supplement to Chapter 5 (Operations Management Irwin Operations Decision Sciences 13th edition) in your textbook.
Take into account the following requirements:
Create a decision tree for the scenario.
Explain how to make a decision tree and how to draw a decision tree (include the decision tree in an appendix showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value).
Using your decision tree, defend your final decision.
A cereal producer’s operations manager must choose between the following options:
1.A large-scale investment (A) in a new cooker, which might yield a significant return in terms of increased income net of costs but requires a 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal investment. According to detailed market research, there is a 40% possibility that a pay-off of 9,375,000 Saudi Riyal would be realized, but a 60% chance that the pay-off will be only 3,000,000 Saudi Riyal.
2.An existing cooker will be refurbished in a lesser scale project (B). This option is less expensive but has a lesser pay-off of 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal. Extensive analysis indicates that there is a 30% probability of a gain of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal, but a 70% likelihood of only 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal.
3.Continue with the current activity without making any changes (C), which costs nothing but yields no benefit.
Directions:
The length of your essay should be four to five pages, excluding the title page and reference pages, which are never included in the content minimum criteria.
4 pages (explanation and answer)
Irwin Operations Decision Tree for The Case Study in Operations Management
RUBRIC |
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Excellent Quality 95-100%
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Introduction
45-41 points The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned. |
Literature Support 91-84 points The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned. |
Methodology 58-53 points Content is well-organized with headings for each slide and bulleted lists to group related material as needed. Use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. to enhance readability and presentation content is excellent. Length requirements of 10 slides/pages or less is met. |
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Average Score 50-85% |
40-38 points More depth/detail for the background and significance is needed, or the research detail is not clear. No search history information is provided. |
83-76 points Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is little integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are included. Summary of information presented is included. Conclusion may not contain a biblical integration. |
52-49 points Content is somewhat organized, but no structure is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. is occasionally detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met. |
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Poor Quality 0-45% |
37-1 points The background and/or significance are missing. No search history information is provided. |
75-1 points Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is no integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are not included in the summary of information presented. Conclusion does not contain a biblical integration. |
48-1 points There is no clear or logical organizational structure. No logical sequence is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects etc. is often detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met |
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Irwin Operations Decision Tree for The Case Study in Operations Management |
Irwin Operations Decision Tree for The Case Study in Operations Management