Decision Making Under Uncertainty Essay
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty Essay
Gannon University
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Decision Making Under Uncertainty, GENG 623
Problem # 1
Jafar Alsayednasser
Dr: Mahesh C. Aggarwal
Probability is the fundamental science of uncertainty. At whatever point there is something that we don’t know without a doubt, our uncertainty can be depicted by probabilities. When we examine probability hypothesis, we are considering uncertainty. To study uncertainty with a spreadsheet-based reproduction, it is valuable to make some uncertainty inside the spreadsheet itself. Knowing this, the originators of Excel gave us one straightforward yet
flexible approach to make such uncertainty: the RAND() function, and afterward press the Enter key. A number somewhere in the range of 0 and 1 is dis-played in cell Al. At that point (by mouse or bolt keys) and enter the formula;
=IF(A1<0.5,”Defective”,”Good”)
(The initial equals sign [=] alerts Excel to the fact that what follows is to be interpreted as a mathematical formula, not as a text label. The value of an IF(,,) function is its second parameter if the first parameter is a true statement, but its value is the third parameter if the first is false.)
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Essay
Group 1 Group 2 Subgroup 1 Subgroup 2 Nu of people 30 10+20 5+30 Defective % 0.05 0.15 0.4 Assemble % 0.5 0.3 0.2 <0.5 <0.8 >0.8 =IF(K7<L5,L4,IF(K7<(L5+M5),M4,N4))
This formula used for the defective percentage of each group in the Excel sheet.
=IF(E34=$H$31,D34,”…..”)
This formula used for simulating the table for 1 to 2000 cell.
=COUNT(F34:F2034)
This formula used for the total defective in the Excel sheet.
=SUM(F34:F2034)
This formula used for group 1 defective in the Excel sheet.
=J22/J21
This formula used for Probability defective of the first group in the Excel sheet.
Total defective 219 Total defective of the first group 4 Probability defective of the first group 0.01843318
References
WHAT EVERY ENGINEER SHOULD KNOW ABOUT DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY, JOHN X. WANG, CERTIFIDE SIX SIGMA MASTER BLACK BELT CERTIFIED RELIABILITY ENGINEER, ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
RUBRIC
Excellent Quality
95-100%
Introduction 45-41 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Literature Support
91-84 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Methodology
58-53 points
Content is well-organized with headings for each slide and bulleted lists to group related material as needed. Use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. to enhance readability and presentation content is excellent. Length requirements of 10 slides/pages or less is met.
Average Score
50-85%
40-38 points
More depth/detail for the background and significance is needed, or the research detail is not clear. No search history information is provided.
83-76 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is little integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are included. Summary of information presented is included. Conclusion may not contain a biblical integration.
52-49 points
Content is somewhat organized, but no structure is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. is occasionally detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met.
Poor Quality
0-45%
37-1 points
The background and/or significance are missing. No search history information is provided.
75-1 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is no integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are not included in the summary of information presented. Conclusion does not contain a biblical integration.
48-1 points
There is no clear or logical organizational structure. No logical sequence is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects etc. is often detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met
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