Evaluating Forecasting Methods
Order ID:89JHGSJE83839 Style:APA/MLA/Harvard/Chicago Pages:5-10 Instructions:
Evaluating Forecasting Methods
Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting
Course Objectives:
CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting
Prompt:
This week you will be researching and writing on one of the most basic methods of forecasting: Judgmental Forecasting. After reading Chapter 3 in Chase (Overview of Forecasting Methods), access the three excellent resources on Judgmental Forecasting hyperlinked below. Use all three, for they each provide a different perspectives on the broad methodology of forecasting future demand using experience, insight, and business savvy. You may also want to search the internet for any additional resources that add to the lesson material in chapter 3. As the instructions advise in previous assignments, if you do add additional sources, do not use advertisements of any kind, including consultancies and software. Use the template attached to this assignment for your submission. The template includes sections to guide you this week on your essay assignment to explain the methodology of Judgmental Forecasting.Judgmental Forecasting Resources:
Forecasting Principles and Practices (1 page)
A Comparison of Judgmental Forecasting Techniques (9 pages)
The Delphi Method (1 pages)
Instructions:
Utilize the template attached below for this assignment, it has the sections already formatted for you to insert your findings by subject/question.
Label your submission document as follows: firstinitiallastname_Assignment_3 (something like JJohnston_Assignment_3)
Minimum 1000 words of content of strategic material, double spaced. Content requirement does not include cover page, abstract, nor reference pages.
Source, Cite, and Reference a minimum of three (3) expert resources to provide support for main points in your essay. Each resource is to add to the content through either paraphrasing the author’s position on the subject or a direct quote. Refrain from excessive use of quotes in your response (less than 5% of the 1000 words).
Resources and citations are formatted according to APA (7th edition) style and formatting.
Once you submit your document to the assignment folder it will automatically be loaded to TURNITIN.COM for plagiarism. Make sure your quotes have quotations and correct (to APA) in-text citations and a reference at the end of the paper.
Plagiarism can result in a zero for this assignment:
When using another author’s exact words insert quotation marks and a citation including year of publication and page or paragraph number
When paraphrasing, do not use ANY of the author’s words, use your own “take” on the author’s meaning and context.
There are no late assignments accepted after the last day of the course unless: (a) prior approval has been obtained from the professor or (b) you have an approved 30 day extension.
Evaluating Forecasting Methods
RUBRIC
Excellent Quality
95-100%
Introduction 45-41 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Literature Support
91-84 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Methodology
58-53 points
Content is well-organized with headings for each slide and bulleted lists to group related material as needed. Use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. to enhance readability and presentation content is excellent. Length requirements of 10 slides/pages or less is met.
Average Score
50-85%
40-38 points
More depth/detail for the background and significance is needed, or the research detail is not clear. No search history information is provided.
83-76 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is little integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are included. Summary of information presented is included. Conclusion may not contain a biblical integration.
52-49 points
Content is somewhat organized, but no structure is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. is occasionally detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met.
Poor Quality
0-45%
37-1 points
The background and/or significance are missing. No search history information is provided.
75-1 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is no integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are not included in the summary of information presented. Conclusion does not contain a biblical integration.
48-1 points
There is no clear or logical organizational structure. No logical sequence is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects etc. is often detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met
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