International Relations Discussion Term Paper
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International Relations Discussion Term Paper
Description / paper instructions
PART IA. Dr. Rose has noticed a positive statistical correlation between the number of allies a country has and its conflict propensity (meaning that, in the data, the more allies you have, the more likely you are to go to war).
1. What causal mechanism might explain this relationship?
2. Should she be worried about endogeneity? Why or why not?
3. Should she be worried about spuriousness? Why or why not?
B. A researcher hypothesizes that power-sharing institutions (e.g. proportional electoral systems or federal systems of government) make civil conflict onset less likely
. She collects data on the presence or absence of power-sharing institutions in 175 countries in each year from 1975 to 2000. She also has data on the presence or absence of civil conflict in those countries for all those years.
To test her hypothesis, she will compare the frequency of civil conflict onset in country-years during which institutions are power-sharing compared to those others in which they are not. She analyzes her data and finds a correlation coefficient of -.2 between her independent and dependent variable with a p-value of .044
1. Is this design a true experiment, natural experiment, discontinuity, or observational design?
2. What is the dependent variable in this study?
3. What is the independent variable of interest?
4. How would you describe the relationship between the two variables?
5. What is a p-value and what does it mean for our interpretation of the researchers results in this study?
C. A survey of 625 U.S. adults found that the average feeling thermometer for the United Nations is 42%, with a standard deviation of 10%.
1. How would you use this information to calculate a confidence interval?
2. What is the 95% confidence interval for this data?
3. What is a confidence interval and why are they important?
D. The following graphs display some simulated data. Please answer the questions below based on what you see. (Please refer to the picture on the attached file named “Figure D” for the graphs.)
1. What type of graphs are these?
2. For Graph A…a. What can you tell about the measures of centrality for this distribution? How do you know?
b. What type of distribution is this?
c. What can you tell me about its skew?
3. For Graph B…
a. What can you tell about the measures of centrality for this distribution? How do you know?
b. What type of distribution is this?
c. What can you tell me about its skew?E. The following graph shows data from a recent election. The vertical axis shows the percentage of votes a particular
candidate received; the horizontal axis shows the percentage of tweets related to the race that mentioned the candidate.
Consider the graph and answer the questions that follow. (Please refer to the picture on the attached file named “Figure E” for the graphs.)
1. What is this type of graph called?
2. How would you describe the relationship between the two variables?
3. My theory posits that there is a causal relationship between tweet share and vote share. Based on this figure, is my theory right? Why or why not?
F. I want to understand what determines peoples economic policy preferences and decide to use a survey to evaluate my theory that your information environment affects your opinion on free trade.
I recruit a group of 500 respondents via a posting on Facebook. When respondents click my survey link, they are randomly given one of two surveysone that shows them an article about the domestic economic costs of free trade and one that shows them an article that discusses both costs and benefits.
1. Do I have a random sample? Based on that, what are the implications for my study?
2. Do I have random assignment? Based on that, what are the implications for my study?
3. Based on the principles of research ethics, would you consider my study to be ethical? Explain your answer.
4. After Ive collected my data, what type of test would be most appropriate to determine the bivariate relationship between information and opinion on free trade?PART II
A. Read the following Vox Article that discusses under-30 voter turnout during the 2020 US Presidential election: https://bit.ly/2HaiugQ
International Relations Discussion Term Paper
RUBRIC
Excellent Quality
95-100%
Introduction 45-41 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Literature Support
91-84 points
The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.
Methodology
58-53 points
Content is well-organized with headings for each slide and bulleted lists to group related material as needed. Use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. to enhance readability and presentation content is excellent. Length requirements of 10 slides/pages or less is met.
Average Score
50-85%
40-38 points
More depth/detail for the background and significance is needed, or the research detail is not clear. No search history information is provided.
83-76 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is little integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are included. Summary of information presented is included. Conclusion may not contain a biblical integration.
52-49 points
Content is somewhat organized, but no structure is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. is occasionally detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met.
Poor Quality
0-45%
37-1 points
The background and/or significance are missing. No search history information is provided.
75-1 points
Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is no integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are not included in the summary of information presented. Conclusion does not contain a biblical integration.
48-1 points
There is no clear or logical organizational structure. No logical sequence is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects etc. is often detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met
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International Relations Discussion Term Paper